Is the Housing Market Going To Crash? Here’s What the Experts Say

If you’ve been scrolling through headlines or social posts predicting a housing market crash, it’s easy to start second-guessing things. But before you buy into the panic, let’s take a look at what the data and the experts are actually saying. At Slater Realty Group, we’re keeping a close eye on market trends, and here’s the simple truth: the numbers do not point to a crash. Instead, they show slow, steady, and sustainable growth ahead.

The Real Story: What Experts Are Forecasting

Every quarter, over 100 leading housing experts participate in the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae. Their latest findings show home prices are projected to keep rising nationally through at least 2029. The key takeaway: prices are expected to rise about 15% overall by the end of 2029. The most optimistic forecasts predict a 26% increase, and even the most cautious experts still see a 5% gain.

In other words, no group of experts is forecasting a crash or even a decline over the next five years. The data all points to one thing: ongoing appreciation, just at a steadier, more sustainable pace.

How This Compares to a “Normal” Market

The projections call for 2–3.5% annual growth in home values over the next several years. For context, the long-term historical average is closer to 4–5% per year. That means the market is slowing down a bit, but that’s not a bad thing it’s a sign of stability.

Those record-breaking jumps in 2020–2022, when prices surged 15–20% in some areas, were far from sustainable. Today, the market is finding balance again, moving back toward a healthier rate of appreciation that aligns with historical trends.

Why Prices Aren’t Expected To Crash

A lot of the “crash” talk comes from the belief that what goes up must come down but housing doesn’t follow that rule. Historically, home prices have almost always moved upward over time. The biggest reason we’re not heading for a 2008-style collapse is simple: supply and demand.

Even with affordability challenges, there still aren’t enough homes available to meet buyer demand. That ongoing shortage continues to keep upward pressure on prices nationwide. And while the economy may shift, history shows the housing market always recovers—and we’re already turning that corner now.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting to buy or sell because you’re worried about a crash, it’s time to focus on the facts, not the fear. The real question isn’t if home prices will rise—it’s by how much. At Slater Realty Group, we’re here to help you understand what these national trends mean for our local market and what they could mean for your next move. Let’s connect and put a clear plan together that works for you.